The 2026 Innovation Odds Board

Gabe Weiss
6 days ago
2 min read

A Prediction Market for Trends. Not Another List.

Every December, the same ritual. Consulting firms release trend reports. Marketing teams distribute them. Executives skim them.

Nothing changes.

Not because the writers are lazy. Because the format is broken.

Trend reports are structurally incentivized to be safe. They can't be too wrong. They can't be too early. They have to cite evidence that already exists. They have to be comfortable enough for executives who don't want discomfort.

So we get the same recycled headlines:

"AI will change work."
"Personalization will increase."
"Data will be important."

You could have written that list in 2015.

I Built Something Different

The 2026 Innovation Odds Board treats trends like a prediction market, not a blog post.

Every prediction includes:

Odds — A synthetic probability as if the market had to price it
A mechanism — What has to happen for this to materialize
A constraint collapse — What barrier must fall
Signals to watch — Observable indicators, not vibes
A falsifier — What would prove the prediction wrong
Chaos Monkey injects — Tail risks that break the model

Because trends aren't interesting when they're "likely." They're interesting when they force action.

What's Inside

The Top 10 Odds Board — The predictions that matter most, organized from Locks to Degen Bets.
The Chaos Monkey Shelf — Tail risks most planning processes ignore entirely.
The Signal Watchboard — What to monitor so you know when to move.
Falsifiers for every prediction — Because unfalsifiable predictions are just optimism.

About The Algorithmic Enterprise

This report is part of a framework for how businesses transform when algorithmic systems take on decision-making, workflows, and experience orchestration.

TAE isn't about "adopting AI." It's about the next operating system for how companies think, decide, and act.

Subscribe to the newsletter for weekly insights on the transition to algorithmic enterprises:

Download the Report

The organizations that learn to price uncertainty will outperform the ones still reading trend reports in committee meetings.

Download the 2026 Innovation Odds Board Report (PDF)

Download the 2026 Innovation Odds Board Overview Presentation (PDF)

The future isn't predicted. It's priced.